Elmira Star-Gazette

Lieberman lessons
Democratic senator's loss could have implications on other races, or not.
August 15, 2006

A week ago today, Connecticut Democrats made U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman pay for supporting the Iraq war by choosing Ned Lamont as the party's Senate nominee this fall. The results were hardly unexpected. Polls had predicted a Lamont victory.

But since last Tuesday, political pundits have been trying to decide whether Lieberman's defeat, along with losses by U.S. House incumbents in Georgia and Michigan, should be a bellwether for other congressional races in the nation. Whether the Lieberman Factor - anger at President Bush's Iraq policy - will spill into other races has to be on the minds of Republican leaders, but whether the Connecticut outcome makes GOP candidates dangerously vulnerable is something that won't play out until Nov. 7. A lot can happen between now and then to indicate that an end is in sight for U.S. occupation of Iraq.

The probability of that appears slim at this point as U.S. and coalition troops try to quell civil violence, but for those who subscribe to political conspiracy theories, there's always the possibility of an October surprise.

Closer to home, the U.S. Senate and 29th Congressional District races haven't yet been consumed by the Iraq war debate that sank Lieberman in Connecticut. Democratic incumbent Sen. Hillary Clinton, who backed Bush on going into Iraq but has been a strong critic of his since, is facing an antiwar opponent in the September primary, Jonathan Tasini. Her I'm-for-it-but position allows the senator to have the best of both worlds on Iraq, and she probably won't break a sweat in winning the primary over Tasini.

In the 29th Congressional District, which includes Chemung, Schuyler and Steuben counties, U.S. Rep. John R. Kuhl Jr.'s support of the president's Iraq policy has left him wide open to sharp criticism from Democratic challenger Eric Massa. But are the voters of the 29th as vengeful as Connecticut Democrats?

That is what Massa ought to hope for if he is to make Kuhl's Iraq stance an Achilles heel. The math, however, is not necessarily on Massa's side. Since reapportionment in 2002, the district has become more Republican, losing a Democratic majority when Chatauqua County was cut from the district in exchange for Republican strongholds in Ontario and Monroe counties.

But there are still about 65,000 enrolled voters with no party affiliation in the district - so-called independents - who along with Democrats and disenchanted Republicans can give Massa some hope in parlaying the Lieberman Factor to his advantage.

This is August, when Lieberman is a hot topic. The unknown is whether anyone will remember that come November.